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How Long To Prepare For?

In the article, Introduction to Full Spectrum Preparedness Doctrine we briefly discussed the ten fundamentals of preparedness, how they overlap and interact as well as how each fundamental has four aspects.  Today we’re going to establish some conventions to aid us in our future discussions of how long to prepare for.

I’m working on a probability model (if you’re a mathematician and want to help please contact me) to help those readers that are mathematically inclined chose how long to prepare for…but for today’s discussion we’re going to simplify things a little and talk about preparedness time horizons.  For convenience, I’ve broken the time horizons down into ‘Preparedness Levels.’

While there’s no reason a person, family or group couldn’t prepare to different levels in different fundamentals…you should keep in mind that your overall preparedness level is that of your ‘lowest level’ preparedness fundamental.  For example:  if your family is prepared to Level III, Weeks in every fundamental except Health (where you are prepared to Level I) than your overall preparedness level is Level I, Days.

Aspects of Full Spectrum Preparedness FundamentalsAspects of Full Spectrum Preparedness Fundamentals

Take a look at the graphic to the right to remind yourself of what the aspects of the Full Spectrum Preparedness Fundamental are.  You can review the 10 Fundamentals of Full Spectrum Preparedness HERE if need be or look at the Graphic towards the end of this article..  Keep in mind as you read about the Preparedness Levels that different aspects become more or less dominant at different Preparedness Levels and factor that into your preparedness planning.

Preparedness Level 0, Unprepared

You and your family are unable to get through the next 72 hours without making purchases, borrowing from others or seeking charity.  Perhaps your life sustaining prescription is about to run out, your pantry is almost bare or you don’t have a source of safe, potable water if the tap suddenly stops working. Continue reading

Mayfield on Preparedness – Today’s Quote

Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy.

Max Mayfield, Director National Hurricane Center

Risk Management for Preparedness

This article will provide a brief introduction to Risk Management for Preparedness, but it’s techniques can be applied to every aspect of your life.

We each do Risk Management every day of our lives, often without even being consciously aware of the process.  Some examples of day-to-day Risk Management are:

  • Deciding if it’s safe to pull out into traffic
  • Deciding if your child can go over to a new friend’s house
  • Deciding if it’s safe to walk through an empty parking lot
  • Deciding if you need to get help before you lift that piece of equipment
  • Even deciding if it’s safe to tell your spouse about the bet you lost in the office football pool

The above are some examples of informal Risk Management.  Risk Management can also be performed as a deliberate process.  The deliberate process is better suited to riskier, more complex activities and operations and is a relatively easy process to learn if you take the time to practice it.  In this article I’m going to  discuss the U.S. Army’s way of doing Risk Management but simplify it a little and show you how this process can aid you in your preparedness planning and execution.

Note:  For those of you familiar with  the Army’s Composite Risk Management Process (CRM) I’ve modified the model to better support preparedness planning and survival situations.  Also, I’m going to stop short of discussing the CRM Matrix.  If there’s enough interest in this topic I’ll do a more advanced article explaining the use of that tool and perhaps tailoring a Risk Matrix specifically to help Prepography readers focus their preparedness efforts and keep safe in disasters, post collapse or survival situations.

As mentioned above the U.S. Army calls their program Composite Risk Management and applies the process to every operation and activity.  The Army describes Composite Risk Management as “a decision-making process used to mitigate risks associated with all hazards that have the potential to injure or kill personnel, damage or destroy equipment, or otherwise impact mission effectiveness.”

As a prepper you can use this same tool, apply this same process to your preparedness efforts.  This process can help the prepper with decisions as simple as deciding what type of backup heating to install in your home or to a decision as big and complex as deciding how long of a time period you need to prepare your family for. Continue reading

Building a Poncho Hooch

I was having a beer the other day with a prepper buddy and the conversation turned to what types of shelter are best to carry in a bug out bag… and that’s when the discussion turned to the poncho hooch also known as the poncho shelter.  The poncho hooch is basically a tarp shelter made from a poncho, and a little cordage.  Building a poncho hooch is easy so let’s look at a few alternatives: Continue reading

Top 10 Tips to Build Resilience to Stress

The military has put a great deal of effort recently to helping service members build resilience because increased resilience or ‘resistance to stress’  makes it much easier for a person to ‘continue their mission’ or keep taking care of their family when danger, fear and discomfort intrude.  Resilience is important to preparedness as well.  Here are Prepography’s Top 10 Tips to Build Resilience to Stress:

  1. Focus on Your Goal or Mission:  By keeping the end in mind you can work through the adversities necessary to get there.
  1. Develop a Community of Support:  A community that you are comfortable asking for help but often don’t have to ask.
  1. Remain Optimistic:  No matter how bad things get…know that they will get better.  General Colin Powell said that “optimism is a force multiplier.”
  1. Anticipate Change:  By building a mental model that anticipates change and potential outcomes you will be able to better react when faced with change.
  1. Be Proactive:  The Boy Scout motto is “Be Prepared” for good reasons.  By anticipating future needs and taking steps now to make life easier then you will smooth the transition and better handle change. Continue reading

Dakota Fire Pit Infographic

Here’s something that doesn’t weigh a thing to add to your Get Home Bag or Bug Out Bag… a little knowledge about how to build a Dakota Fire Pit.  While a fireless camp is the least likely to be observed there may be times when a fire is absolutely necessary…water purification by boiling (when you have no other methods available)  or to avoid hypothermia are two possibilities that come to mind.  Such situations call for a Dakota Fire Pit also known as the Dakota Fire Hole… the next most clandestine camp to a fireless camp.

Dakota Fire Hole Infographic

Dakota fire hole (Figure VI-15). Use the Dakota fire hole for high winds or evasion situations

Essentially the Dakota Fire Pit is a fire pit with a separate tunnel built to supply airflow directly to the fuel.  By keeping the fire below ground you reduce the light signature of the fire significantly and are able to get by with a much smaller fire than you would need above ground to accomplish the same cooking tasks.

Here are some additional hints to make your Dakota Fire Hole easier to build and less likely to be seen: Continue reading

Today’s Top 10 It’s Not This It’s That for Preppers

Sometimes preparedness is about seeing the potential alternate uses of everyday items, sometimes preparedness is about keeping the ‘end’ in mind while dealing with the ‘ways’ and the ‘means.’  These were the inspirations for this periodic column on Prepography called… It’s Not This It’s That (INTIT):

  1. It’s not a salt lick for livestock, it’s brining material for salting that livestock’s meat
  2. It’s not 550 cord it’s a solar clothes dryer
  3. It’s not a pile of old tires…it’s an Earthship (or maybe just an Earthboat) waiting to be built (thanks to PennyPincher for the tip)
  4. It’s not a flower garden…it’s a survival garden just waiting to have the flowers replaced with beautiful vegetables
  5. It’s not a dog…it’s an early warning system…or if it’s like mine it’s a ‘come and get my master we live over here’ system Continue reading

Shadow Globalization – Bazaars of Violence

Andrew’s Note: Today we return to our crystal ball…or at least the closest thing that the Department of Defense (DOD) has to it…namely the Joint Operating Environment (JOE) 2010. The JOE is the DOD’s keystone document used to project the world in which it will operate up to 25 years into the future.  As I’ve mentioned previously, it’s a sobering read for the prepper and likely to turn the non-prepper into one.  The following is excerpted from PART IV: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE JOINT FORCE, War in the 21st Century.  Links have been inserted by me to provide additional reading for context.  Read on to learn what the Department of Defense thinks about Shadow Globalization: “Bazaars of Violence”:

Shadow Globalization: “Bazaars of Violence”

The globalization of trade, finance, and human travel across international boundaries in the commercial world has an analogous dark side as well.  Criminal and terrorist networks are intermingling to construct their own “shadow globalization,” building micro markets, and trade and financial networks that will enable them to coordinate nefarious activities on a global scale. The ubiquity and ease of access to these markets outside of legal structures attract shadow financing from a much larger pool, irrespective of geography.  In these markets, rates of innovation in tactics, capabilities, and information sharing will accelerate and will enable virtual organizational structures that quickly coalesce, plan, attack, and dissolve.  As they grow, these markets will allow adversaries to generate attacks at a higher level of rapidity and sophistication beyond law enforcement’s capability to interdict. For example, we have seen Somali pirates hiring indigenous spotters to identify ships leaving foreign harbors as prime targets for hijackings. We should expect shadow globalization to encourage this outsourcing of criminality to interface increasingly with insurgencies, such that actors in local conflicts will impact on a global scale, with perhaps hundreds of groups and thousands of participants.

The line between insurgency and organized crime will likely continue to blur. This convergence can already be seen in the connections between the FARC and cocaine trafficking, MEND and stolen oil, and the Taliban and opium production. This convergence means that funding for violent conflicts will interplay and abet the growth of global gray and black markets. The current size of these markets is already $2-3 trillion and is growing faster than legal commercial trade; it has the potential to equal a third of global GDP by 2020.    Continue reading

A Brief Introduction to EMP

Prepography reader BlueShark recently wrote me to ask what an EMP is.  What follows is a very brief introduction to EMP and here’s a hint…it’s not the name of the latest rap star to make it big.

Simply put an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) is an immense charge of electricity created by a nuclear detonation exploding just above the earth’s atmosphere.  This electrical pulse will have an effect similar to a lightning strike on all electronics within a line of sight (LOS) that are not specifically shielded from EMP.  A single weapon high detonated high enough above the Earth would have LOS to most of the continental U.S. and two weapons launchable from container ships off our shores  (Atlantic & Pacific) could easily create an EMP big enough to cover the continental U.S. as well as sizable portions of Canada and Mexico.  Think of an EMP as a single event that could send the entire U.S. over a hundred years into our past…no electricity (except batteries), no electronics, no modern communications, possibly (almost) no motorized transportation.

Things to know about an EMP: Continue reading

How to Field Strip A MRE (Meal Ready To Eat)

Many survivalists, hunters, preppers and outdoor enthusiasts buy commercial Meals, Ready to Eat (MRE’s).  These commercial MRE’s are very similar to the military MRE’s that the Department of Defense (DOD) provides to our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines for field use (for some reason the DOD doesn’t allow the manufacturers to sell the same meals to the public).  In this short article we’ll discuss what an MRE is and an easy way to cut down on the size and weight of MRE’s…or as we call it in the military…how to field strip a MRE.

What is an MRE:

The MRE has been the primary field ration of our troops since the early 1980′s.  It’s a self contained, calorie dense (over 1,200 calories), shelf stable (up to five years under optimal conditions) meal designed to keep you fueled during labor intensive activities.  While it’s designed as ‘a’ meal I found that even during the toughest field exercises it was just too much food/calories to be consumed as ‘a’ meal.  Depending on the nature of the exercise and work involved I usually carried and ate 1-2 MRE’s per day.  I’ll leave the discussion of the culinary ‘delights’ of the MRE for another time but you should know that these meals aren’t just heavy, they’re also bulky.

Note:  The MRE is heavy by backpacking food standards not in relation to the MRE’s predecessor the C Ration. Continue reading

Today’s Top 10 It’s Not This It’s That for Preppers

Sometimes preparedness is about seeing the potential alternate uses of everyday items, sometimes preparedness is about keeping the ‘end’ in mind while dealing with the ‘ways’ and the ‘means.’  These were the inspirations for a new periodic column here on Prepography called… It’s Not This It’s That (INTIT):

  1. It’s not your old army pistol belt with attached molle pouches…it’s your very own batman utility belt
  2. It’s not a gallon of unscented bleach it’s up to 3,000 gallons of potable water
  3. It’s not a .22 long rifle shell that cost you 3.9 cents it’s 1.318 lbs (583 calories, 111.46 grams of protein) of cottontail rabbit 
  4. That multi-pound box or bag of salt isn’t food seasoning it’s a food preservative
  5. It’s not an out of date phone book for downtown Possom Trot, it’s 500 pages of outhouse cleanliness Continue reading

Top 10 Preparedness Uses of Diatomaceous Earth

What is Diatomaceous Earth:

Diatomaceous Earth (DE) is the fossilized remains of waterborne diatoms and algae.  DE is mined product…wonder if the job description is “fossil miner?”  DE has the consistency of and looks like an off-white version of baby or talcum powder.  DE is non-toxic and is sold in both food and non-food grades (see warning below about pool filter DE).  While DE is mammal safe (even to eat if food grade) wear a mask while handling it as you wouldn’t want DE to get into your lungs.  WARNING:  Don’t use DE sold as pool filter media for any other purpose as the silica count is too high and breathing this DE in particular could create health issues).

DE’s primary use is for organic, non-toxic pest control.  I discovered DE years ago as a heaven sent solution to keep my wife happy…you see she went back and forth on whether she hated the ants invading our house or the poisons I sprayed to keep the ants out more.  The product works by scratching up the exoskeleton of insects so that they dehydrate and die.  Here are the Top 10 ways to use (food grade and only food grade) DE:

  1. Grain Storage:  Food grade DE has been used for centuries to keep stored grain pest free.  According to Diatomite Canada the proper mix is 1 cup of food grade DE to 50 lbs of grain.  It can even be ground with the grain into meal or flour and you’ll never notice it in the final product (bread, muffins, cereal, etc.).
  1. Construction:  Any time I build a wall I spread a good amount of DE along the 2×4 base before closing up the drywall for permanent, non-toxic pest control.  If I have to open up a wall or repair drywall I dump in a few scoops as well.  We’re fortunate that we’ve never had a cockroach infestation…and I intend to keep it that way.
  2. Ant Barrier:  My favorite use is as an ant barrier because it keeps my wife happy…and if the wife is happy, everybody’s happy.  Simply sprinkle your DE around the foundation where you see the ants trooping in and your ant problems are over.  You will need to refresh the DE periodically…I just wait until I see the little ant scouts inside the house again.
  3. Gardening:  Keep pests away from your garden plants.  You can dust your garden plants and spread food grade DE around the plant bases to keep bugs and slugs off. Continue reading

How Much Water Should I Store?

Why Should I Store Water:

We all know that there is no element more important to human life than water.  Fortunately, most of us enjoy an abundance of extremely cheap, potable water that ‘magically’ flows into our house from ‘elsewhere.’  Unfortunately, the very ease with which we access potable water day-to-day blinds us to our need to store water just in case.  Here are just of few of the reasons to store water in your home:

  1. Weather can interrupt your access to your water supply.  Municipal sources rely on water mains that frequently break during weather extremes (both hot, dry weather and extended cold spells).  A drought that lasts long enough or even overuse can dry out the longest river, largest reservoir, or biggest aquifer.
  2. Pollutants can enter the water distribution system.  “Boil order” are two words that you want to hear before breakfast if your neighborhood is affected.  Boil orders are usually related to a water main break.  Surface water sources like rivers and reservoirs are vulnerable to accidental pollutants…think of the affects of a tanker trailer of benzene going over a bridge just upstream from your municipal water intake or a train derailment…those train tracks are conveniently located along many of our major waterways.  Water treatment plants can work magic but some pollutants are surely beyond their capabilities.  Floods are especially damaging to surface and subsurface (subsurface open to the surface… like wells) as floods pick up and disperse pollutants.
  3. Intentional tampering or terrorism.  Unlike what you see on television and in the movies our surface water sources are fairly safe due to modern treatment methods and the ‘solution to pollution being dilution.’  It would likely take truckloads or a trainload of poison to become an effective terror attack at the source waters but lesser amounts it could potentially shut down a municipal water system…and shutting down the system is the most likely affect.  However, terrorism targeting a water system from within the treatment facility or ‘downstream’ is certainly a possibility.
  1. A handy supply of water is helpful and saves time if you are forced to bug-out.  Just make sure to store at least some of your water in containers that match your bug-out carrying capability (truck, car, bike, public transportation, on foot, etc.)

How Much Water Should I Store: Continue reading

3 Steps to Banish Fear of Preparedness

I’ve had several conversations with some of my closest confidants recently that have opened my eyes and eliminated a blind spot in my understanding of (some) other people’s preparedness paradigms…or lack thereof.  It seems that some people fear thinking about preparedness.  These people avoid the thought or discussion of perils and preparedness topics.  Some people go so far as to avoid entertainment that deals with preparedness or the consequences from a lack of preparedness.

You may be chuckling too yourself at my former ignorance, but as a lifelong prepper (in mindset if not always in actuality) I never stopped to consider that someone would willing chose ignorance.  I get it now, though.  As a business owner I receive phone calls all the time from sales professionals wanting to sell me the next great thing to make my business grow.  If they get through my well trained staff they rarely get past the first sentence of their sales pitch before I politely thank them for calling and tell them I’m not interested.  At that point I don’t know the details of their pitch but I do know there are only so many hours in the day and I can’t spend them all listening to every telemarketer that calls.  The bottom line is that I’m not open to whatever new information and knowledge (with the resulting price tag) that those telemarketers wish to ‘bless’ me with.  By choosing ignorance of their ‘pitch’ I don’t have to deal with the potential discomfort of living without a product or service I might need or the discomfort of living without the money that I just spent on that product or service.

My prepper-shy friends are no different than I am with the telemarketer’s sales pitches except that missing this opportunity will potentially affect more than just the bottom line.  These friends have expressed to me that the potential discomfort that they are avoiding is fear but they are already operating on a fear of the unknown.   These people believe that the study of and actions necessary to become better prepared are attributable to and result from fear.  By not entertaining the idea of preparedness they are avoiding living in fear.  Unfortunately, this reaction is based on a half-formed thought. Continue reading

Cyberthreat, Cybersecurity and the Cyber Future

Andrew’s Note: Today we return to our crystal ball…or at least the closest thing that the Department of Defense (DOD) has to it…namely the Joint Operating Environment (JOE) 2010. The JOE is the DOD’s keystone document used to project the world in which it will operate up to 25 years into the future.  As I’ve mentioned previously, it’s a sobering read for the prepper and likely to turn the non-prepper into one.  Read on to learn what the Department of Defense thinks about our Cyber future, the Cyber Threat and Cybersecurity (highlights are emphasis I added):

CYBER

The pace of technological change is accelerating exponentially. If the pace of technological advancement continues, greater change will occur over the next twenty years than occurred in the whole of the Twentieth century. The key will be the use to which these technologies are put. In many ways the world of 2030 could appear nearly as strange to us today as the world of 2000 would have to an observer from 1900.

The advances in communication and information technologies will significantly improve the capabilities of the Joint Force. Global information networks enabled by wireless and broadband technologies will link deployed forces to supporting assets at home. Deployed forces will be able routinely to access analysis, research, computation and planning capabilities located outside the theater. Joint forces will conduct globally-ranging cyber warfare, either as independent operations or in support of deployed units, manipulating or overwhelming adversary systems. The creation of virtual models of potential operational areas will allow the Joint Force to train and plan for those environments. Much as flight simulators allow pilots to refine flight skills, immersive training environments could allow future joint forces to practice key operational tasks.

Cyberspace permeates nearly every aspect of societies from personal computers and cell phones to networked transportation and inventory systems. Our society’s very way of life has come to depend fundamentally on the use of cyberspace. In much the same way that we depend on our highways and the oceans, we rely on networks pieced together through the electromagnetic spectrum to conduct business, purchase goods, entertain ourselves, and run our basic utilities. Our ability to maneuver freely in cyberspace amplifies all instruments of national power. In fact, our ability to maneuver in cyberspace is an emerging instrument of power itself.

Many of those same advances also will be available to America’s opponents, who will use them to attack, degrade, and disrupt communications and the flow of information. It is also essential that the Joint Force be capable of functioning in a hostile information environment, so as not to create an Achilles’ heel by becoming too network dependent. Continue reading

REALITY CHECK Preparing for Class Warfare – Battling the 47th Entitlement Corps

Andrew’s Note:  Today we present another commentary in Roger’s REALITY CHECK series.  This time Roger takes on the current frenzy over Presidential Candidate’s Mitt Romney’s recently released comments regarding The 47%.  Enjoy your REALITY CHECK, Preparing for Class Warfare – Battling the 47th Entitlement Corps!

This is not a political website!  [AJJ's Note:  Maybe a little bit when it comes to assaults on Individual Liberty]  Its purpose is to educate, communicate and facilitate the process of personal preparation for disaster and build self-reliance.  However, one of the highest probability and greatest threats likely to cause The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) comes directly from the political realm!  I have discussed taxation, Maslow’s Hierarchy of Dependence, and the national debt-saster, in previous posts.  I, like a sizable majority of Americans, feel the country is “headed in the wrong direction” and that is a direct result of the actions and inactions of politicians.  Thus, I will Reality Check various partisan political topics from time to time.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has been sodomized for committing the politically mortal sin of telling the truth during a private political event in which he stated that he felt 47% of Americans would be disinclined to support him because they pay no federal income taxes and/or receive a federal stipend of some kind under the current administration. Romney had the temerity to openly and accurately discuss the taxation and dependency realities of our country!!  He then had the gall to stand by his statements and beliefs rather than blubber about how he didn’t mean it and feels horrible about it!!  No one, expects his “honesty attack” to catch on with other politicians and, in fact, this condition is likely to prove terminal for him.  What it has done is to provide counter-battery fire, a return salvo, to the drooling mutants making up the Occupy Movement and their successful ‘1%’ attack. Continue reading

The Intellectual Prepper Paradigm

Andrew’s Note:  Today’s article is on the creating an Intellectual Prepper Paradigm and having the intellectual honesty to face your own blind spots so that you can think clearly and take care of yourself and your family.

At a dinner with my daughters a few years ago I posed a question to them to assess their knowledge of the world, their education and world outlook…I already knew how intelligent they are.  The question I asked them is:

Are all cultures equally valid? Continue reading

Andrew’s Top 10 Preparedness Websites

Prepography LogoWhile I’m kind of partial to Prepography…there are a number of other preparedness related websites out there worth checking out as well.  Here are my current Top 10 Favorite Preparedness Websites:

  1. reThinkSurvival:  A great preparedness site written out of the Midwest.  The publisher is a heck of a nice guy I’ve corresponded with several times, great content and he offers a free e-book he’s written to subscribers.
  2. SHTF Plan:  Probably my favorite site these days.  New content every day in an easy to read format.
  3. Prep-Blog:  Nice site written by a couple of bi-coastal buddies.  I like the clean look of the site and the articles are written from a ‘exploratory’ perspective.  It’s almost as if you’re reading one side of a discussion and you are free to chime in to keep the talk going.
  4. Modern Survival Online:  A great, common sense preparedness site run by a nice guy named Rourke.
  5. SouthernPrepper1:  YouTube Site of a former U.S. Army Infantry Non-Commissioned Officer.  His scenario videos I find especially compelling as it puts you through a mental rehearsal for a world a lot different than we enjoy today.  The site’s ‘star’ has a preparedness consulting business in the Carolinas with Engineer 775. Continue reading

Today’s Top 10 Prepping Motivators

September is Preparedness Month.  Here are 10 headlines from the past few days on diverse topics to help keep you focused on your prepping:

  1. Yosemite doubles scope of hantavirus warning to 22,000; third death confirmed:  Many diseases including hantavirus can be prevented through proper pest control and sanitation (personal and environmental).  Stock what you need and know what to do.  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) information on preventing hantavirus can be found here.
  2. Drug shortages down overall, but some linger longer:  Stocking the medicines your family needs to stay healthy is important for both mundane ‘drug shortages’ as well as societal upsets that could potentially break down the medical or drug distribution systems.  Make sure you stockpile legally by talking with your doctor or hiring a new one like Dr. Bob Olson.  Until recently Dr. Olson conducted his consultations by telephone to help preppers safely and knowledgeably stockpile critical medications.  The State of Missouri actually changed its law to close down Dr. Olson’s tele-practice.  You can still visit him in person or find a like-minded medical provider in your area.
  3. Rescuers told to keep at it after China quake kills 80:  Nature’s fury can strike anywhere at any time.  Keep on prepping and if you want to see a map showing 2.5 Magnitude or greater quakes for the last week…check out this map at the U.S. Geological Survey (as of this writing the earthquake map looks a lot like the Pacific’s Ring of Fire…it usually does).
  4. Yet another pig flu virus infects peopleZoonotic diseases (capable of cross species transmission) aren’t just creepy…they’re also scary because of their ability to mutate.  We wrote about this particular flu strain earlier this summer in Beware the Fair. Continue reading

Making a Sling From a Triangular Bandage Infographic

Making a Sling from a Triangular Bandage

Source: Continue reading

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